R value for coronavirus rises in South East, new figures show

[Cookham v Coronavirus]

The reproduction rate of coronavirus - the R value - has risen in the South East, according to new research published by the University of Cambridge.

R measures how many new people are infected by the virus on average, and officials have said the easing of lockdown measures depends on the value staying below one.


Previously, the figure has typically remained between between 0.7 and 0.9 in England, suggesting the average patient is infecting less than one other person.

However, new statistics published on Friday (June 5) show the R value has risen across all regions in England, surpassing the critical figure of one in two areas.

In the South East, the R value has increased to 0.97, meaning the region now has the third highest reproduction rate in England.

In the North West and the South West, however, the value has reached median figures of 1.01 and 1.00 respectively.

If the R value equals one, it means each infected person will on average pass coronavirus on to one other. If it is above one, it means the number of COVID-19 cases will increase exponentially.

If the value is below one, the spread of the disease will eventually decline as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak.

The Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge is working with Public Health England (PHE) to regularly 'nowcast' and forecast COVID-19 infections and deaths.

The university said it believes the rise in the R value is probably due "to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings".